Daily NSSL-WRF Ensemble Forecasts will end February 16, 2018. Deterministic forecasts will continue.
Daily forecasts from the NSSL-WRF ensemble will stop on 16 February 2018. The
deterministic forecasts initialized at 0000 and 1200 UTC will continue to be
To NSSL-WRF users and supporters:
Thank you for your support of the NSSL-WRF and the NSSL-WRF ensemble. We are
announcing that production of daily ensemble member forecasts will end on
February 16th, 2018. This will NOT affect the deterministic NSSL-WRF simulations
that are initialized at 0000 and 1200 UTC daily, and these will continue to be provided.
The ensemble forecasts were intended to serve as a real-time
testing ground for development of storm-scale ensemble products and visualization
tools, and much was learned during the last four years. Fortunately, during this
time an operational convection-allowing ensemble was developed, the High
Resolution Ensemble Forecast System version 2.0 (HREFv2), which can be viewed
We believe that this advanced interactive HREF web page can take the place of the NSSL-WRF ensemble products.
By ending the NSSL-WRF ensemble, we will be freeing up resources to begin
running an experimental, global FV3 run with a 3-km nest over the CONUS. The FV3
is the Finite Volume Cubed Sphere Model and was developed at NOAA's Geophysical
Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. Recently, FV3 was selected as the dynamical core for
the Next Generation Global Prediction System project (NGGPS), and it will replace
the GFS in 2019. Eventually, NOAA’s modeling systems for all scales will unify
around FV3. However, further research and development is needed, especially for
regional, high-resolution applications, and our hope is that the experimental 3-km
nested FV3 runs can help accelerate development at these scales.
NSSL will continue to maintain an archive of the NSSL-WRF ensemble data. For
those interested in accessing this dataset for research purposes, please email
Finally, we would appreciate it if you would provide us with some information
about how you used the NSSL-WRF ensemble by completing this quick voluntary
survey (click to open). For any other questions or comments feel free to email
Thank you for your support,
The NSSL-WRF Ensemble Team